Choppy Markets

The first three months of 2018 were very entertaining if you like market volatility and drama. January started the year off strong as we saw equity market gains across the board. February and March were both negative months with markets experiencing greatly increased volatility, including two trading days in which the Dow Industrials lost over one thousand points. Higher interest rates and increased fears of inflation caused the bond market to also drop during the first quarter. This was one of those quarters where gains were hard to come by regardless of how you were invested.

The current bull market began nine years ago during the Great Recession of 2008-2009. During this nine-year run, the equity market has had a few corrections, defined by a 10% drop. In February the market dropped 10% from its January highs, rallied, and then fell to the 10% level once again. In times like these the question is always, “Is this a temporary pull back and thus a buying opportunity?” or “Is this the early stages of a deeper sell off and thus a chance to sell?” We believe the answer depends on your time horizon. The stock market is highly priced right now and a deeper sell off would not be surprising. However, we also feel that we remain in the midst of a longer-term secular bull market that has more time to run.

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